Peter McManners

Peter McManners Peter McManners Peter McManners Peter McManners Peter McManners

AdaptThrive-CoverNew book released

Adapt and Thrive: The Sustainable Revolution

“Radical green business book, which argues that we need to move beyond the short-term benefits of globalisation to build strong communities living as integral components of a sustainable world.”

The Bookseller magazine

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What size ecological boots? Week 27 (30 June 2008)

For the last four years I have lived in Finland. This beautiful and special country has made a lasting impression on me. It has a population of only five million people (about the same as London) but has a 40% larger land area compared with the UK. The stress that the Finnish population places on its natural resource base is far less than the UK.

The term that describes the load we are placing on the environment is ‘ecological footprint’. This is a more general term than the familiar ‘carbon footprint’. The ecological footprint encompasses every aspect of human consumption from food and fuel to water and materials. This is compared with the ecological capacity, ranging from forestry and fisheries to agriculture and the ability of natural systems to absorb waste. At world level, humanity’s consumption exceeded planet Earth’s capacity in the mid 1980s. Demand is now running at over 120% of the world’s bio capacity. We are driving the Earth’s natural ecosystem to destruction. We must reduce demand.

The aggregated world footprint indicates that the Earth can handle a consumption figure of 1.8 hectares per person. This is calculated by taking the Earth’s capacity and dividing it by the population. Although this figure is widely quoted, it has no practical use, for two reasons. First, where you live makes a difference in the consumption required. Up here in Finland, close to the Arctic Circle, surviving the long cold winter requires the wearing of rather larger ecological boots than say someone living in the tropics. Second, as the world population increases the figure for a personal sustainable ecological footprint reduces. Where a society makes the effort to become sustainable (and live within its ecological capacity) it would be absurd to force it to consume less to counter balance a rising population on the other side of the planet.

Finland is one of the most sustainable developed societies. Compared with the UK there are many things we could copy. These range from well insulated buildings and district heating systems to compact urban design that supports the cyclist. Recycling is another area of excellence. Although still well short of the system the world needs, it makes the UK look Stone Age in comparison.

There is a problem – or is there a problem? Finnish people wear rather big ecological boots, consuming 7.6 ha per person. The interesting figure is the surplus of 4.4 ha per person (capacity minus demand). Finland lives within its carrying capacity. Perhaps more countries should be planning to live within their ecological capacity – wearing ecological boots appropriate to their circumstances.

Looking at the ecological deficit/surplus around the world is interesting. It is not surprising that the US is running 4.8 ha per person over capacity when every American wears massive ecological boots of size 9.6 ha. However if Americans shifted to shoes size 4.8 ha (feasible) they would be running within capacity. The UK deficit of 4.0 ha is more deeply entrenched. People living in Britain consume 5.6 ha so would need to reduce this to 1.6 ha. Bangladesh is also in deficit by 0.2 ha per person. Bangladeshi’s consumption is already very low (0.5 ha per person). Reducing this to 0.3 seem to be impossible – the only feasible solution for Bangladesh (and perhaps the UK) is to control population.

Finland is a sparsely populated country that makes becoming sustainable easier. The UK is a small and crowded country reliant on trading with other countries to survive. For this to continue we need a world trade system that supports sustainability. Globalisation needs a different face. It is in the UK’s self interest to push hard for such a deal. Fail, and the UK will struggle to maintain its society as each country closes in to conserve its ecological capacity for its own use.

Wearing large ecological boots is OK if you have the capacity. If not, you need robust arrangements to borrow from others. The world has a tough challenge to find a way forward. My book Adapt and Thrive – written whilst living in Finland – shows the way.

www.footprintnetwork.org

© Peter McManners 2008

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world_2001 Week27

Source: Global Footprint Network

Rhenium to the rescue? Week 26 (25 June 2008)

Rhenium was one of the last naturally occurring elements to be found, discovered in 1925. It is a rare silvery heavy metal that occurs in some molybdenum ores at low concentrations (0.002% to 0.2%). In 1928, 1 g of Rhenium was produced from processing 660 kg of molybdenite. The extraction was so difficult and expensive that production was discontinued until 1950s when it found an important use is in tungsten-rhenium and molybdenum-rhenium alloys.

One important application of rhenium alloys is making parts for jet engines. These allow the engines to run at much higher temperatures. The military has liked this for many decades because of the improved performance available to fast jets. Higher temperatures also allow greater efficiency. As oil prices climb, and aircraft operators search for fuel savings, the demand for rhenium is on the rise.

The aircraft industry will need every saving it can find, if it is to continue the spectacular growth of recent years, as we enter the era of peak oil. Rhenium might help, but we should not expect rhenium to ride to the rescue.

Rhenium has not been classified as a precious metal, but this is changing. The price of rhenium now exceeds $11,000 a kilogram. This is more expensive than silver ($536) but cheaper than gold ($28,500). The world annual production of gold is over 2,000 tons and the price has continued to climb. World annual production of the metal rhenium is only 40-50 tons.

I wonder how high the price of rhenium will be pushed as we seek more fuel efficiency. I would not be surprised if traders corner this small specialist market. It is already cheaper to silver-plate jet engines than to use the metal in alloys to make them run hotter and therefore more efficiently.

Aviation is due for dramatic change as aviation fuel prices rise from the previous very cheap levels. A scramble for rhenium is not going to make much difference - except to make profits for the traders who spot the link between our concern for the environment (and high oil prices) with demand for specialist alloys.

© Peter McManners 2008

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peter.mcmanners@petermcmanners.com

© Peter McManners 2007