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Peter McManners’ ideas ... are so much against the tide, that they must be seriously considered and analyzed, all the more, because the current tide of economic ideas is really low. I am finding find the proximization of Peter McManners more and more attractive as a pattern of thought.

Yuri Tarnopolsky 2011

Read Peter McManners writing in Sustainable Business magazine, the UK's No.1 climate change and sustainability magazine for businesses looking to respond positively to the challenge.

Most Recent Blog entry:

Stunned Rabbit Syndrome 15th May 2012

‘We are like a rabbit caught in the glare of the headlights of a speeding truck. We can easily escape, but we are transfixed by the situation. Instead of leaping off to the side, we wait to see if the wheels run over us.’

I wrote these words as I grappled with the challenges of coming up with policy for a sustainable world. It was a long slow mental journey because business-as-usual is so deeply engrained, not just in policy and regulation, but in the thought processes we employ. The education system teaches a narrow viewpoint of the world and encourages a selfish and short-term logic in managing our affairs.

The analogy of the rabbit, sitting in the middle of the road caught in the glare of the headlights of a speeding truck, is an accurate reflection of this point in human civilization. One option is to sit it out as the juggernaut of climate change and resource depletion charges over us, hoping that the effects will hit another family, another community or another country. There may be a thin corridor between the wheels if we keep our head down low where we can survive as destruction takes place around us, but it is a huge risk and morally indefensible. Not only a risk, but the consequences of failing to act, will affect everyone as climate refugees look for a new home and the prices of resources climb to unaffordable levels. We will all be poorer as a result.

The rabbit feels happier to sit still hoping the danger will pass. People also do not like to be scared by having reality brought home to them. This I call the ‘Stunned Rabbit Syndrome’. I wish I knew how to cure it. People want to read upbeat optimistic assessments that allow them to be happy and content with their situation. Explaining to people how it really is, switches people off; they become deaf to logic. Take the other approach, explaining that we have the solutions, people listen but only up to the point where you explain that the solution are not automatic. Effort is required; compromise will be necessary and reining back on material consumption a necessary prerequisite for success. People with stunned rabbit syndrome here the word ‘solution’ and then switch off feeling happy and trusting that someone else will make it happen.

Are we all rabbits? Or, do enough of us have the courage to face reality and force through solutions?

 Find out if you suffer from stunned rabbit syndrome: Victim of Success: Civilization at Risk is now out as an e-book on Kindle.


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Southern Europe Bail Out 8th May 2012

Bail out? yes, but jumping out, not injecting more cash.

There is much talk, again, about raising further loans to shore up the euro. The time has come for this delusion to cease. In a sustainable single currency there must be a mechanism to transfer funds from the strong to the weak regions. A batch of further loans to deeply indebted southern European countries – which it would be impossible to repay – is not a solution.

A default on loans could help the euro to limp on with its full complement of the existing membership for months, or even years if the default was large enough. Default on loans made through the European Stability Mechanism could have the same effect as a transfer of funds from the weak to the strong Europe economies. The UK should be careful not to be exposed and drawn into such an arrangement. A loan with a good prospect of repayment at some point in the future is low risk (and may even make a profit for the UK if it is made at an interest rate above the UK’s cost of borrowing) but a loan made on the unspoken understanding that it is the first stage of a controlled default would be highly damaging. The UK is outside the euro and not therefore subject to the same commitment to transfer funds to weak euro members. This is the job of the strong members inside the euro zone, such as Germany whose exporters have done exceedingly well from a lower exchange rate than would have been the case if Germany had retained the Deutschmark.

In a single currency, weak regions will need support and strong regions will have to foot the bill. These are the simple economic facts played out within every national economy and a requirement of every successful currency union. The sticking point is whether Germany will pay the price. If not, it would make logical sense for the highly indebted countries to bail out of the euro and go back to national currencies. This is not the ‘bail out’ that the politicians are discussing now but it has a much more realistic chance of success than adding further loans to a flawed system.

The frustrating aspect of all this is that it has been obvious for many years that the euro has fault lines. The solution for greater macroeconomic stability in European economic affairs is through collaboration between separate economies building on the relative strengths of each, not through a union in which one-size-fits all. Europe is a wonderful mix of countries, cultures – and economies. We should accept reality, celebrate diversity and encourage the southern European countries to get on with bailing out of a foolhardy project. The consequences will be unpredictable, and could be terrible in the short term, but not so dire as failing to act yet again.

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peter.mcmanners[at]petermcmanners.com